CBI on 'high alert' over house prices

The Guardian Reports:  Britain's leading business lobby group has warned that policymakers must be ready to act on unsustainable house price rises in the UK.

The CBI said it was on high alert after annual house price inflation reached more than 10% in some areas. It now expects interest rates to rise in the first three months of 2015, six months earlier than it previously predicted and, crucially, before the general election.

John Cridland, the group's director-general, said: "We have to remain alert to the risks posed by unsustainable house price inflation, and the [Bank of England's] financial policy committee is poised to act when necessary.

"Housing has come back under the spotlight as annual house price inflation figures have reached double digits on some measures. While housing transactions are still running almost 30% below their last peak in 2006, they are picking up steadily."

The business lobby group is expecting house prices to rise by 8.2% this year, and by 5.1% in 2015. Prices rose 3.6% in 2013.

It raised its forecasts for economic growth this year and next, and said the recovery was becoming better balanced with a sharp rise in business investment expected. It expects the economy to grow by 3% this year, stronger than an earlier forecast of 2.6%. Next year growth is expected to be 2.7%, compared with an earlier forecast of 2.5%.

The CBI warned that "loose talk" and anti-business rhetoric in the runup to next May's general election risked damaging investment and derailing the recovery.

"The UK now has more stable economic foundations, and political risks must not jeopardise this. Politicians must be wary of the risk of headline-grabbing policies that weaken investment, opportunity and jobs," Cridland said.

"We've got a combination of political risks that we've not had for some while. They range from UK general election to Scottish referendum on independence to the prospect of a referendum on European Union, so that's quite a cocktail of issues."

He said the message to all parties was to stick with what's working, including a commitment to cut the deficit.

The CBI brought forward its expectation for the first rise in interest rates to the first quarter of 2015, when it expects the first 0.25 percentage point rise in rates. It had previously forecast the first rise in rates would come in the third quarter of next year. Rates have been on hold at a record low of 0.5% since March 2009.

Cridland said the government's controversial Help to Buy scheme – blamed by some for creating a new housing bubble – was not responsible for unsustainable rises in house prices, arguing it was a relatively small part of the overall market.

"Help to Buy is primarily helping people outside London, on relatively modest mortgages, and appears very much still to be helping first time buyers. Those were the CBI's core objectives."

He said it was important to remember that although London prices were 25% above the 2008 peak, in part fuelled by rich cash buyers, prices in the rest of the UK were still 2% lower.

The CBI chief said bold action was needed from government to address the chronic shortage of houses in the UK, so that supply had a chance of keeping up with demand. The CBI wants to see councils releasing more land, and the possibility of new garden cities to be explored by policymakers.

Meanwhile, Katja Hall, the CBI's chief policy director, said the warning on anti-business policies was meant for all parties but admitted Labour's pledge to freeze energy prices and the hard line on banks were concerns.

"Some of the loose language we've heard is from politicians from all parties. Of course there is concern about the proposed energy freeze and some of the proposals on banking.

"Political positioning must not be allowed to stifle investment, whether it's an unrealistic immigration target, unjustified interventions into specific markets, flirting with leaving the European Union, delaying vital long-term infrastructure projects or restricting labour market flexibility."

The CBI wants a commitment before the election from all parties to the recommendations made on increasing the UK's airport capacity in the Davies commission.

The group predicts that unemployment will fall further to 6.8% this year and 6.4% next year, from 7.5% in 2013. Hall said the UK labour market was "looking really healthy". She said last summer marked a turning point, with a big increase in full-time permanent employment, after a period when self-employment, part-time work, and temporary work were factors driving a rise in employment. She also made the case for zero-hours contracts, where employees are not guaranteed a minimum number of hours.

"They are not bad contracts, they are an important part of a flexible labour market and they have helped to protect jobs during the recession, and create jobs as the economy started to recover," she said.

For more information on selling your property, home, house, flat or commercial property in Andover, Whitchurch, Ludgershall, Tidworth or the surrounding area, please contact us for a no obligation up to date valuation 01264 366611

STOP PRESS: The Andover office of BELVOIR! jumps to 2nd in the UK for the first time in March.......

For the month of March, Belvoir in Andover jumped 3 places to a record breaking 2nd place in the entire network across the UK. Office bosses Daniel Tarrant, Phil Pinkney and Greg Greatbatch were on hand to give us their reaction.

‘Belvoir Andover has been in the town now since 1997 and has seen a lot of change over the years both in Andover itself and in the BELVOIR network. The franchise network has grown in this time to over 160 offices with many in city locations such as Liverpool, Sheffield, London and Manchester, so to be 2nd in UK is a massive achievement.’ says Greg Greatbatch

‘This sends a very strong message to landlords of property in the Andover area that they have invested in a property hotspot . It is astonishing what has been achieved by the whole team here in this relatively small market town. We have not seen this level of rental interest since 2006 and many are taking the opportunity to expand their existing portfolio’ says Phil Pinkney

‘I am delighted at the success of our sales operation. Since Belvoir started selling property in July last year, we have sold £millions worth of property. We are achieving more than ‘market value’ in a number of cases and ahead of time compared to the national average of 3 months (offer accepted to completion).’ says Daniel Tarrant

If you are looking to buy to let or expand your portfolio further, please get in touch as soon as possible as now is the time. Property prices (as we have previously reported) are set to continue to rise. This means capital growth for you as well as rental income yields that easily outstrip banks savings and ISA rates.

Call the team on 01264 366611 or email us at andover@belvoirandover.com

Bank of England holds UK interest rates at 0.5%

UK interest rates have been held at the record low of 0.5% for another month by the Bank of England reports the BBC.

The Bank also kept the size of its bond-buying economic stimulus programme unchanged at £375bn.

The news is in line with analysts' expectations, despite recent evidence that the UK economic recovery is strengthening.

Worries about rising house prices in parts of the UK have intensified the debate over when rates might increase.

Continue reading the main storyThe Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have kept rates at the historic low of 0.5% for more than five years, amid worries that the finances of many individuals and

businesses remain too weak to withstand a rise.

But the pace of economic recovery is picking up, and last week the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised its UK growth forecast for this year from 2.4% to 3.2%.

The OECD did, however, sound a warning that the housing market could be overheating. It said that the UK government should consider restricting access to the Help to Buy scheme, which provides mortgage guarantees and loans to people struggling to find deposits on homes.

The British Chambers of Commerce said on Thursday that a rate rise soon would be "premature".

BCC chief economist David Kern said: "The decision to maintain interest rates and quantitative easing was unsurprising and appropriate.

"Businesses need clarity that encourages them to increase investment, and at the moment the MPC is delivering this. However its efforts are hampered by repeated calls for interest rate rises whenever a piece of positive news is published.

"Such a move would be premature. The MPC should instead strengthen the clarity of its forward guidance message."

'Blunt instrument'

Many economists have pencilled in a rate rise early next year. The Bank hinted in February that the second quarter of next year was a possible timeframe.

However, Scotiabank economist Alan Clarke said that if wages continue to pick up, then a rise could come before Christmas.

Martin Beck, senior economic adviser to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, said: "The pound's continued climb and subdued inflation expectations, also, point to benign prospects for inflation in the near-term.

"The Bank is likely to use its macro-prudential tools, possibly as soon as June's meeting of the Financial Policy Committee, before deploying the blunt instrument of an interest rate rise.

"Next week's Inflation Report should provide more enlightenment, pointing, in our expectation, to rates remaining very low for some time yet."

'Property millionaires club' to reach 500,000 this year

The number of £1m homes has exploded in 2014 and is now 50pc higher than it was in November 2007 at the peak of the property bubble

The Telegraph says the number of “property millionaires” will surpass 500,000 by the end of the year as almost 9,000 homes a month rise above the £1 million mark, according to an analysis conducted for The Telegraph.

Nearly 35,000 home owners have become property millionaires already this year, the vast majority in and around London.

The number of £1 million homes is now 50 per cent higher than it was in November 2007, when the financial crisis struck.

While the figures are likely to be welcomed by most home owners, the deputy governor of the Bank of England has warned that the surge in house prices, and the bursting of any subsequent bubble, is the single biggest threat to financial stability.

The total number of homes valued at more than £1 million grew by 34,374 in the four months to the end of April to 427,501, according to research conducted for this newspaper by the property website Zoopla.co.uk.

Just over 271,000 of the total were in London, where property prices have risen by 12.4 per cent in a year to an average of £414,490, according to the Land Registry. An extra 31,312 home owners in London are now sitting on million-pound properties.

Liam Bailey, the head of residential research at Knight Frank, said 500,000 people were likely to be property millionaires by the end of the year if house price growth continued at its current pace. “We believe this will happen,” he said. “To date London has seen the majority of growth but that is changing and the spread of property millionaires will move outside of London across the rest of the UK.”

A variety of house price data suggested this week that the recovery, which was initially limited to London and the South East, has spread across Britain.

The average UK house price climbed to £183,577 in April, up 10.9 per cent annually, according to Nationwide. Halifax put annual growth at 8.7 per cent and the Land Registry put it at a more modest 5.6 per cent, although this was the fastest rate that the body had recorded in four years.

Not all regions have seen a rise in demand for high-end homes, however. The number of properties valued at more than £1 million fell slightly in the East, the West Midlands, the North West, the North East and Scotland.

Wales has the fewest property millionaires with 1,048 — a number that has remained static since December.

The housing recovery has been driven by foreign investors, greater access to cheap mortgage finance and demand for properties far outweighing supply in many areas.

Critics warned that the growth is not sustainable. Sir Jon Cunliffe, the deputy governor of the Bank of England, said policymakers must decide whether to take action to cool the housing market, arguing that it would be “dangerous to ignore the momentum that has built up”.

Need an up to date market valuation, contact BELVOIR 01264 366611